Should you buy a home now?

Mortgage rates are sitting at 6.38%, according to the latest Freddie Mac data — which is slightly elevated from earlier this year, but still lower than a year prior (in January 2025, rates climbed above 7% for a bit). So what’s next for mortgage rates? We asked six pros.

While there’s a slight possibility of rates easing downward, they are more likely to remain in the low-6% range for the near term, predicts Jen Poniatowski, SVP of mortgage growth and market development at Key Mortgage. “Any movement lower would likely be incremental rather than significant, barring a meaningful shift in inflation or the bond market,” says Poniatowski.

But, of course, there are a lot of factors that will determine whether rates go up or down — energy prices among them. After having touched below 6% briefly before the oil price shock, mortgage rates will depend on how oil prices retreat or elevate, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors. “If oil prices retreat closer to $70 per barrel, then mortgage rates may return closer to 6%. If oil prices reach $100, then mortgage rates may rise to 6.7% to 7%,” says Yun.

Zillow’s chief economist, Mischa Fisher, says though there’s a lot of volatility, he expects mortgage rates to be elevated through much of April given the latent impact of energy prices. “Energy prices are front and center right now. Rising oil prices have stoked inflation concerns which tend to push mortgage rates higher. Higher mortgage rates have eroded some of the affordability gains we saw earlier this year, which has dampened our outlook for activity this spring,” says Fisher.

For his part, Stephen Kates, financial analyst at Bankrate, notes that average mortgage rates have risen about 0.5 percentage points since late February and are expected to stay elevated at this level for the foreseeable future. “The conflict in Iran and the specter of rising inflation are pushing Treasury yields higher which has in turn raised mortgage rates,” says Kates.

In terms of other factors that will move the needle in April, Kates says uncertainty around inflation is a primary factor since it directly affects the 10-year Treasury yield, which anchors 30-year mortgage rates. “The mortgage-treasury spread, which is the difference between the two rates, has widened slightly in the last month but remains within the normal range,” says Kates.

Mortgage rates closely follow the 10-year Treasury Bill yields much more than the Fed Funds rate. The former captures financial markets’ expectations about economic conditions in the medium-term, during which the mortgage has to be repaid, while the latter captures and reacts to short-term economic shocks, explains Francesco D’Acunto, faculty affiliate at Georgetown McDonough’s Steers Center for Global Real Assets. “For this reason, the prediction for mortgage rates in April ultimately rests on what will happen with the current most concerning source of uncertainty for medium-term economic conditions, the war on Iran,” says D’Acunto.

As long as the conflict in the Middle East continues without a resolution in sight, Jeff DerGurahian at loanDepot says rates will remain elevated. “If signs of a resolution begin to emerge, there is some potential for rates to gradually come down closer to the 6% range,” says DerGurahian.

What might this mean for home sales?

Yun mentions that the spring homebuying season was projected to experience its best performance in three years with mortgage rates headed to 6%, before the oil price shock. “If mortgage rates stay at or near 6.5% then home sales may barely grow at all,” says Yun.

What’s more, Kates says existing home sales are already severely depressed and are not likely to worsen much further. “New home sales were poor in January but may recover slightly during the spring home buying season. Overall, until mortgage rates fall more meaningfully into the 5% range, total home sales will not budge,” says Kates.

Given the volatility, DerGurahian says it’s too early to know exactly how the spring market will unfold. “Every little move in rates matters when it comes to affordability and the way homebuyers think about purchasing, so getting back closer to 6% would certainly help, but there’s more than a good chance this season ends up being a better market than we’ve seen in the last couple of years if some of this volatility settles down,” says DerGurahian.

Should you consider buying now?

Specific numbers aside, trying to time mortgage rates is a gamble. “If a home fits your budget and your life, it typically makes sense to move forward, especially since buyers can refinance later if rates fall,” says Fisher. What’s more, while there’s a continued focus on interest rates, they are only one component of the overall transaction, says Poniatowski. “Loan structure, preparation and execution are equally important, particularly in competitive markets,” says Poniatowski.

Another important thing borrowers should know right now is that adjustable-rate mortgages are still worth looking at. “While the recent move in short-term rates has made ARMs a little less attractive relative to the 30-year fixed, there are still options out there in the high 5% range for qualified buyers,” says DerGurahian.

Thanks to By Alisa Wolfson